Just 0.015% of Polymarket traders can reliably make $5,000 or more a month, according to new data, meaning the idea of quitting a full-time job to trade prediction markets is unrealistic for most.
Data from crypto analyst Andrey Sergeenkov on Monday found that while nearly 1% of Polymarket traders earned more than $5,000 in a single month, only 0.1% managed to repeat that the following month and just 0.015% were able to sustain it for four consecutive months.
The average US monthly salary is around $5,220, according to Consumer Shield.
Prediction markets have become one of the fastest-growing use cases in crypto, enabling users to speculate on outcomes across politics, sports, finance and cultural events.
Most prediction markets use binary “yes” and “no” shares priced between $0 and $1 that reflect perceived probabilities. Traders can profit by buying undervalued shares and selling higher or holding winning outcomes that settle at $1 when the event has concluded.
Sergeenkov’s findings were framed alongside a report about Logan Sudeith, a former financial risk analyst who quit his job and turned to prediction markets, where he profited $100,000 in December.
Sergeenkov also highlighted an X post from former Messari analyst “Tulip King,” who claimed in November that “Polymarket is the easiest place in crypto to make six figures right now.”
Related: Three Polymarket traders made timely bets on US-Iran ceasefire
However, Sergeenkov’s data found that only 840 wallets (roughly 0.033% of Polymarket traders) have profited over $100,000.
Not all of these wallets would be retail traders, either, as professional traders working at hedge funds and other firms are also trading in prediction markets.
“Less experienced users tend to trade less successfully,” Sergeenkov noted.
Most successful traders make profits and bounce
The more successful traders don’t stick around long either, Sergeenkov said, pointing out that only 172 of 6,600 wallet addresses with average monthly profits above $5,000 remained active more than a year.
“That’s 2.6%,” Sergeenkov said. “Most traders show up, trade for a short period, and leave.”
Sergeenkov’s analysis didn’t come without limitations. The researcher noted that he only factored in realized profits and losses, though he claimed that 96% of trading volume comes from already resolved markets.
Data was taken from April 2024 through to April 1, 2026.
Magazine: Asia Express: Phantom Bitcoin checks, China tracks tax on blockchain